Why Herman Cain Could Be a Game Changer

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It’s getting interesting. From the Weekly Standard:

After a well-received debate performance last week, Herman Cain surprised everybody by finishing atop the Florida straw poll. This week, he’s finally seeing traction in the polls, and now serious people are starting to take him seriously. It’s far past time for us to take a closer look at Cain, who appears to be making a credible bid for top-tier status.

Earlier this week, Herman Cain asserted that he could win about a third of the black vote. Is this possible? And if so, what would it mean, for Republicans as well as African Americans?

The consequences of just a ten-point swing among African Americans would be enormous for the Grand Old Party. If George W. Bush had won 20 percent of the black vote in 2000 and 2004, he would have beaten Al Gore by almost a point and a half (instead of losing by half a point) and defeated John Kerry by 4 points (instead of his two-point victory). If McCain had done this well among African Americans, Obama’s 7-point victory would have been cut almost in half.

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