I have written several series of articles over the past many years on topics that could not be addressed in just one column. This new series, began last month, is basically a deep dive into why the Illinois Republican/conservative/MAGA donors and activists continue to fail miserably—and will continue to do so until they change course.
Over the past couple of weeks I have encountered at least four people thinking of running statewide in Illinois in 2026. I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but anyone who thinks that Republicans or conservatives or MAGA candidates can win statewide in Illinois in 2026 is sorely mistaken.
Here is a good time for me to inject a little reality into the otherwise intellectually vapid Illinois political arena on the right:
Political science is called the master science because it is. Look at the world: if you don’t get the politics right, your country is pretty much doomed. If you fail nationally, you get Joe Biden. If you fail politically at the state level, you get Illinois.
One long-time political veteran recently told me that he considered his own understanding of the arena to be rather shallow, and that he did not believe he had much to offer by way good political advice.
I cannot tell you how rare that attitude is in politics and government. Most people I know and/or have observed in politics since the 1980s consider themselves to be not only political experts, but also brilliant.
The past 30 years of Illinois political and government policy history proves them wrong.
At this point, we are a long way from being able to win statewide in 2026. There is so much that needs to be built before we would even have the slightest chance. That reality is not understood by most of those who see themselves as experts and brilliant and currently play an important role in the arena.
None of them are outlining a building plan to get us to where we can win because they haven’t the first clue about what that construction project looks like. Those thinking the GOP is what needs to be built do not understand one of the most fundamental aspects of human nature: the role of incentives.
The curious thing about that is Republicans, when it comes to the economic arena, have boasted about their superior understanding of the role of incentives, even as they fail to comprehend human nature in politics. This incomprehension is especially sad to see when it comes to all of those successful business people who become big donors to the GOP.
Democrats and leftists and their donors run circles around our side when it comes to incentives. (I have been saying this for quite some time–see here and here.) And in case you didn’t know, Dems and lefties do not rely upon their party to get the real, ground level political work done.
At this point, we are miles away from having any chance to win in 2026. That is not the fault of the good hearted people on our side stepping up to volunteer time and energy to save the state. The fault belongs to the donor class (who again, Steve Bannon calls morons), and those who con the donors out of their money cycle after cycle and lose miserably cycle after cycle.
Up next: Why Success in Business Does Not Translate into Success in Politics
Click here for the ongoing series.
Image credit: abc7chicago.com.
